Prop betting can be a lucrative way to find positive expected value bets in sports betting.
This is primarily because sportsbooks cannot continuously monitor every player’s situation throughout the day and no one really knows how motivated a player will or won’t be to perform on a given day.
As a result, when information emerges regarding a player’s usage, matchup, or injury status, you often gain an advantage over the sportsbooks, if you can react to player news fast enough.
Betting on a specific performance from a player is called a player prop.
What Is a Player Prop Bet?
A Player Prop is a distinct type of bet that focuses on whether a particular player will reach a specified set of statistics in a game or perform a certain action in a sports game.
Unlike many other types of bets that focus on a team’s overall outcome, player prop bets are singularly concerned with the performance of an individual player or sometimes multiple players.
They are popular in sports like basketball, football, baseball, soccer, tennis, hockey, and boxing, among others.
What’s advantageous about a player prop bet is that, even if the team that the player is on is not performing well in the game, the player you’ve bet on can still excel in their performance, offering you a chance to secure a win based on their achievements.
Why Are Player Prop Bets Called Props?
The term ‘prop’ is short for proposition, which refers to a unique and specific betting option that is separate from the traditional bets on the overall outcome of the game.
It is believed to have originated from the idea that these bets are based on specific propositions or scenarios involving individual players.
‘Prop’ is commonly used in sports betting to refer to any type of bet that is directly related to a specific player’s or game’s event but not directly related to the final result of a game.
This includes bets on individual player performances, team statistics, or even non-sporting events like the outcome of a coin toss.
Player prop bets, therefore, fall under this broader category of prop bets due to their focus on specific player-related outcomes.
How Does a Player Prop Bet Work?
In a player prop bet, you’re not betting on the outcome of the entire game but rather on whether a particular player will achieve certain statistical milestones during the game.
These milestones can vary depending on the sport and include the number of points scored, strikeouts, assists, rebounds, rushing/receiving yards, or any other relevant statistics for that player.
The sportsbook determines the criteria for winning a prop bet which can vary depending on the bet.
To win a prop bet, you need to correctly predict the specific outcome or performance of a player within a sports game.
For example, if you place a prop bet on a basketball player to score over 25 points within a game and the player scores 26 or more, you would win your bet.
Similarly, if you bet on a football quarterback to throw over 250 passing yards and they end up throwing 300 passing yards, you’d win the prop bet.
The key is to accurately predict the outcome to be over or under based on the criteria set by the sportsbook.
If your prediction matches the player’s performance, you’ll be awarded the winnings associated with that bet.
How Do You Place a Player Prop Bet?
Select a Game or Event
Choose the specific game or sporting event you want to bet on. Most sportsbooks offer prop bets for different games.
Find The Props For The Players You Want To Bet On
After selecting the sport and team that you want to select your prop bet, your next step is to find a player in the game and look at the outcomes that the sportsbook is allowing you to bet on for that player.
Review Moneyline Odds and Place Your Bet
Once you’ve selected the game and decided which player prop you want to bet on, review the moneyline odds associated with each possible outcome of the prop bet.
These odds indicate the potential payout for a winning bet but also the likelihood of the bet winning. Positive odds (+) represent potential profit on a $100 wager, while negative odds (-) show how much you need to bet to win $100.
You don’t have to bet $100, you can bet as much or as little money as you want.
Place Your Bet
After evaluating the odds, choose the specific outcome of the prop bet you wish to wager on. Click on your player selection to add it to your betting slip.
On your betting slip, specify the amount of money you want to wager on the prop bet.
The slip will automatically calculate your potential winnings based on the provided odds and the amount of money you’re putting on the bet.
Prop Bet Outcome
Usually, a prob bet outcome can either happen or not happen, and generally, you can bet on either side.
It can go over or under, for example in a team prop you can bet on a basketball team to score over/under 110 total points in a game.
You would win if you bet over 110 points and the team scores over 110 points, but you would lose if you bet on the team to score over 110 points and they only score 105.
Similarly, you could bet on a basketball player to score over 35 points and you would win if they scored 36 or more points but lose if they scored 34 or less.
Your prop bet is successful if the outcome you selected actually happens in the game.
The winnings will be transferred to your betting account, and you can withdraw or use them for future bets.
What Is an Example of a Prop Bet?
I spoke about some examples above but I’ll talk about some more examples here.
In the NBA, a common prop bet involves predicting the number of points a player will score in a game.
If you bet on a player to score more points than the sportsbook’s set line (e.g., LeBron James to score over 28.5 points) and the player achieves that, you would win your bet.
In the NFL, prop bets are usually around statistics like passing touchdowns for a quarterback, rushing yards for a running back, receiving yards for a wide receiver, etc.
For instance, if you wager on a quarterback to throw more touchdowns than the sportsbook’s line (e.g., Patrick Mahomes to throw over 2.5 touchdowns) and he throws three or more in the game, you win your bet.
If you bet on Lamar Jackson to have more than 50 rushing yards in a game and he gets more than 50 rushing yards you would win your bet.
What Are the Advantages of Placing Player Prop Bets?
Diverse Betting Options
Prop bets provide a lot of creative and unique wagering opportunities, which allow you to explore different aspects of a game or event beyond traditional outcomes.
This is awesome if you have a great understanding of a certain sports game and can easily predict player performances.
Increased Entertainment Value
These bets make events more thrilling, as bettors have a vested interest in specific outcomes or occurrences beyond the overall result, which can make sports games a lot more enjoyable than they would have you not made a bet.
Potential for Higher Payouts
Prop bets often have higher odds and payouts since they focus on specific, sometimes challenging-to-predict events happening in a sports game.
Successful prop bettors can enjoy significant winnings with informed predictions.
Skill-Based Betting
Prop bets can involve in-depth analysis of specific player performances, team dynamics, or other factors that require a deeper understanding of the sport or event, making them more skill-based and appealing to knowledgeable sports bettors who follow certain games and players very closely.
Easy to understand
Unlike some complex wagers, prop bets are generally straightforward and intuitive.
You’re presented with a specific scenario or question related to a player’s performance or an event within a game, and you choose the option that seems most likely to occur.
Funny enough player props bets are not always easy to find on sportsbooks but if you can find them, they often have better odds and probability of winning compared to the popular parlay bets that sportsbooks are always telling bettors to bet on.
What Are the Disadvantages of Placing Player Prop Bets?
Higher Unpredictability
Prop bets focus on specific occurrences or individual performances within a game, which numerous unpredictable factors can influence.
For example, predicting the number of assists a basketball player will make in a game can be challenging because the odds of that happening depend on variables like the opposing team’s defense, the player’s health, a player not being injured or benched, and more.
This unpredictability can make it more challenging to predict prop bet outcomes accurately.
Emotional Biases and Distractions
Prop bets can lead to emotional biases and distractions because they often involve personal preferences or attachments to specific players or outcomes.
For instance, a fan of a particular player may overestimate their performance, leading to biased betting decisions.
Similarly, bettors may become overly fixated on a single aspect of the game, becoming too confident, and neglecting other critical factors in their decision-making process.
Yup, I have been here. I think we all have!
Limited Information and Research
When placing prop bets, bettors may need to have access to a different level of statistical information or historical data than they do with traditional bets.
Without this it could be harder to conduct thorough research and analysis, leading to less-informed betting decisions.
Sportsbooks do not provide comprehensive statistics for specific prop bet options, so you’re forced to rely on your knowledge or intuition.
I generally use tools like OddsJam to help me compare the odds between different sportsbooks on a player prop and use that information to pick a side to bet on.
Higher House Edge
Sportsbooks typically set odds and payouts for prop bets to their advantage, given the higher unpredictability associated with these bets.
Truthfully, they do this for all of the bets.
This means that sometimes bettors may receive less favorable odds and potentially smaller payouts than more straightforward bets, making it more challenging to profit in the long run.
Can You Make Money on Prop Bets?
You can make money betting on prop bets, but it’s also important to approach them with caution.
Prop bets often have higher odds and payouts compared to traditional bets, but they also carry a higher level of risk.
The outcomes of prop bets are often more unpredictable and reliant on specific circumstances or player performances.
This means that you need to have a good understanding of the sport, the players involved, and the specific conditions surrounding the bet in order to make the best decisions that will increase your chances of winning.
How Do You Win More Player Prop Bets?
If you want to win more of your player prop bets you will need to use different strategies until you figure something that helps you win on a more consistent basis. Some of the things you can do are:
Research and analyze player statistics and trends
One strategy for making money on prop bets is to thoroughly research and analyze the relevant statistics and trends.
If you study the performance history of players, teams, and specific game situations, you may be able to identify patterns that can help you make more accurate predictions.
Keep up with team/player news and updates
Keeping up with news and updates about injuries, lineup changes, and other factors that may impact player performances can provide a great advantage that can help you make successful prop bets.
Focus on positive EV prop bets
Value in prop betting refers to situations where the odds or payouts offered by the sportsbook are higher than the perceived probability of the outcome occurring.
If you can identify prop bets with favorable odds, that can help you increase your potential returns.
However, it is important to note that finding value in prop bets requires careful analysis and a deep understanding of the sport and the specific circumstances.
But you can use tools to help you as well. For positive EV props, I would recommend you use a sports betting tool like OddsJam.
Manage your bankroll and bet responsibly
Managing your bankroll and practicing responsible betting is very important when it comes to prop bets.
It is important to set a budget for prop betting and stick to it.
This helps you prevent excessive losses and ensures that betting remains enjoyable and within your means.
Avoid chasing losses or making impulsive bets based on emotions.
Instead, you should try to approach prop bets with a disciplined and strategic mindset, focusing on long-term profitability rather than short-term gains.
How do I choose player props?
Line shop for the best prop price
Line shopping, though it may be hard to do, it’s a very important practice for your long-term profitability in sports betting.
Consider this LeBron points prop as an illustration: Let’s say one sportsbook is offering a Lebron 25 points prob at -110 odds and another is offering -115 odds.
The initial difference in payout between the two lines might appear minor, just $5. This means you would be paying an extra $5 on the -115 as opposed to the -110 odds.
However, in reality, this represents almost a $5 variation. Over time, that extra $5 you’re placing on a bet can have a significant impact on your bankroll.
To be a successful sports bettor, you need to outperform the sportsbooks approximately 52-54% of the time, on -110 odds bet, for example.
That’s the same as winning nearly 6 out of every 10 bets that you make.
If you consistently neglect to compare odds, you could unintentionally raise your barrier to profitability by an additional $5 or more, if you refuse to look for better odds to bet on.
Therefore, it’s well worth your time to search for the best prices when placing prop bets.
I have already mentioned above that tools like OddsJam can help you do this much easier and when it comes to line shopping, it’s one of the best on the market.
Know Payer Prop Rules
Player prop rules can vary between sportsbooks, so be sure to familiarize yourself with the specific rules of the sportsbook where you intend to place your bets.
For instance, when betting on a player to score a goal in a soccer match, one sportsbook may require the player to start the game, while another might only demand that the player participates at some point during the match.
If a sportsbook mandates that a player must start, consider placing your bet closer to the game’s start, but, if the player only needs to be active, you may benefit from betting early.
Still, this isn’t really a big deal because the props listed are mostly for players who are starting within a game.
Dive into Daily Fantasy Sports Stats
Fantasy sports enthusiasts with in-depth player knowledge can use their expertise to win more when betting on player props.
If you’re already playing daily fantasy sports, your research can be a valuable asset for making informed player prop bets that are more likely to win.
If you have a regular player prop research routine, including tools you rely on, information sources you consult, and writers you follow, you can amplify your efforts in this area.
When you align your player knowledge with player props, you can turn your fantasy sports expertise into a profitable advantage in sports betting.
I have a lot of knowledge about daily fantasy sports because I play it almost every day and it’s one of the reasons why I like player props betting.
It’s a lot easier to understand player props betting if you play daily fantasy sports because both of them are about predicting individual player/team performances in some shape or form.
What Are Some Great Player Prop Betting Tips and Strategies?
Find An Edge at Sportsbooks
The money line, spread, and totals markets are the most widely popular and frequently wagered options.
The prop bet markets offer fewer data points. The reduced availability of data points in a market makes it easier to identify value or inefficiencies among various sports betting sites.
When you compare prop bets across different sportsbook operators, you’ll likely encounter variations in prop odds or vig (vigorish).
This can allow you to find favorable terms and gain a competitive edge.
Act On Injury Reports, Roster Updates
Let’s say for example that in a basketball game the Golden State Warriors point guard Steph Curry is unable to play tonight and Chris Paul is the backup point guard.
Sportsbook operators have a lot of data on Steph Curry as the starting point guard playing around 35 minutes per game, with Chris Paul typically providing 25+ minutes of play with the second unit.
However, if Curry takes a night off due to an injury or for rest, there needs to be more data available regarding Paul’s performance with a full 35 minutes on the court.
This lack of data can lead to less concrete lines for Chris Paul compared to a regular starter with a well-established role, presenting an opportunity for you to capitalize on the uncertainty.
This is just one example of course but I just wanted to let you see how opportunities can come up.
Be Aware of Correlations
Betting on correlated outcomes means that winning one bet makes it more likely for another to succeed.
You want to avoid bets that work against each other, as this can lead to financial losses or limit your potential profits.
For instance, if you bet on a team to score first, it wouldn’t make sense to bet on the opposing team to win the game.
While it’s theoretically possible for one team to start strong and then lose, this approach involves multiple conditional outcomes, making it riskier and less advisable.
Instead, opt for bets that align with each other to enhance your chances of success.
A correlated bet that works well with each other in a basketball game could be one player scoring over 20 points, and making more than two 3-pointers and another player on the same team getting 2 or more assists.
Predict the Game and Then Look for Props
Instead of immediately getting into the list of available prop bets and selecting which ones to research and bet on, it might be more effective to start by predicting the overall outcome of the game.
Once you’ve made these predictions, whether through your intentions, research, or using sports betting tools, you can explore the list of available prop bets and identify those that align with your game storyline.
For example, if you foresee a particular player scoring first or you’re able to use a tool that can help you decide who will score first, it would be wise to place a prop bet on that player to score first.
If your prediction involves a specific team achieving a certain number of sacks in an NFL game, you may find value in betting on them exceeding that sack count in the prop bets.
This method allows you to base your prop bets on your game predictions, increasing the potential for success.
What Happens if You Bet a Player Prop and the Player Doesn’t Play?
Player prop bets require the players involved to be officially listed as active by the league source for bets to remain valid.
If one or both players are listed as inactive, your bets will most likely be refunded.
Prop bets related to passing yardage are settled based on full-game passing yards. If a match begins but is not completed, match bets will be void.
Usually, if for some reason a game cannot be completed, all other markets will also be void unless the results have been definitively determined.
What is The Best Player Prop Bets Prediction Site?
Two of the best player props bet prediction site that has helped me win more of my props are Stokastic+ Bet Pro and OddsJam.
Stokastic+ Bet Pro
Stokastic+ Bet Pro is a service that provides positive EV betting for NBA, MLB, and NFL player prop betting options.
It uses projections to predict how a player will perform in a game and offers you proprietary sBet% and sEV metrics to help you find the best bets for the day and optimize your prop betting strategy.
I love and fully support this prop betting tool because it is created by daily fantasy sports experts who have made millions, playing daily fantasy sports.
And anyone who understands daily fantasy sports knows that it is very similar to player prop betting.
To use the service, you can subscribe to the Stokastic+ Bet Pro weekly or monthly package which provides access to their data in real-time.
The package includes a user-friendly table that allows you to look at dozens of prop bets to help you bet with confidence.
OddsJam
OddsJam is a popular sports betting tool for sports bettors that offers a lot of tools and resources to help you win more of your sports bets.
Two of the key features of OddsJam that I use and want to focus on for player prop betting are their +EV betting tool and Sportsbook Screen.
Their positive EV tool performs mathematical calculations that find and show you which prop bets bring value against the sportsbook’s odds. This means they are the best bets to make, despite what the sportsbook thinks.
Their Sportsbook Screen tool works by effectively comparing different sportsbooks to highlight the best odds available.
When it comes to your prop bets, this can result in a substantial increase in profitability.
When we compare several sportsbooks, we gain access to the most favorable odds, which can indeed often be the difference between a successful wager and a failed one.
Those are the two tools that I stand by, use, and would recommend to my friends. If you’re just betting on player props, Stokastic+ Bet Pro may be a much cheaper and easier tool to understand and use.
If you want to bet on player props but also be able to get predictions on other bets you can make other than player prop bets, OddsJam is the way to go.