Point spread betting is one of the most used forms of sports betting.
The point spread signifies the number of points by which the favorite team is anticipated to win or the underdog team to lose.
The purposes of point spreads are to make both teams appear equally enticing for bettors, by artificially trying to level the playing field between both teams.
In an ideal scenario, the sportsbooks want to see a balanced distribution of bets coming in on both sides.
What is a Point Spread?
A point spread also known as a “spread” or “betting line,” is a score gap or points margin between two teams, set by sportsbooks to show how much better one team or player is compared to the other in a game.
In other words, it’s the number of points one team is expected to win by in a game versus their opponent.
The stronger team or player is expected to win by a certain number of points, depending on how much better they are thought to be.
A minus sign (-) means that the team is the favorite (expected to win), while a plus sign (+) means the team is the underdog (expected to lose).
How Does a Point Spread Work and How To Read It?
A point spread is used in sports betting to level the playing field when two teams have different levels of skill or talent.
It gives the underdog a theoretical advantage so that they are equally matched with the more talented team (the favorite)
The winner is determined after the spread is added or subtracted from the final score of the underdog and favorite.
Here’s how it works:
Setting the Spread
Sportsbooks set a point spread for the game. This is a positive or negative number, such as “+3” or “-3.”
The number represents the points by which the favorite is favored, or the underdog is handicapped.
What Does a Minus (Negative) Spread Mean?
A negative number (-) spread indicates how many points the favorite is expected to win. For example, if the point spread is -3, the favorite must win by more than three points to “cover the spread.”
What Does a Plus (Positive) Spread Mean?
A positive number (+) spread indicates how many points the underdog is given. If the point spread is +3, the underdog can lose by up to 3 points and still “cover the spread.”
A positive point spread means the team is the underdog, often expected to lose.
However, they can still surprise and win. Even if they don’t win, the point spread allows them to cover.
As long as the underdog loses by a smaller margin than the point spread suggests, they’ve covered the spread, and bettors who backed them can win.
Betting on the Spread
Bettors can place wagers on either the favorite or the underdog. Here are two scenarios:
- If you bet on the favorite (e.g., -3), they need to win by more than 3 points for your bet to be a winner. If they win by exactly three points, the bet is a push, and you get your stake back.
- If you bet on the underdog (e.g., +3), they can either win the game outright or lose by less than three points for your bet to be a winner. If they lose by exactly three points, it’s also a push.
Determining the Winner
The final score of the game, after applying the point spread, determines the winner of bets.
It’s not just about which team wins the game but whether they win by enough (for the favorite) or lose by a small enough margin (for the underdog) to cover the spread.
For example, let’s say we have a basketball game with the Los Angeles Lakers +5 and the Golden State Warriors -5.
At the end of regulation, the Lakers has 105 points and the Warriors has 109 points.
If we go back to the Lakers +5 and the Warriors -5 and add those numbers to the final score, they would look something like this:
Lakers 105+5 = 110
Warriors 109-5 = 104
If you bet on the Warriors -5 you would lose your bet in this situation, even though the warriors won the game and this is because they have to beat the Lakers by more than 5 points for you to win your bet.
While the Lakers only need to lose by less than 5 points against the Warriors or win the game in order for you to win your bet, which in this case the Warriors only won by 4 points.
Payouts
When you win a bet on the point spread, you receive a payout based on the odds and the amount of money you bet.
For example if you bet $10 on a -110 odds spread and win, you would get a total payout of $19.09 (Your $10 bet amount plus $9.09 winnings)
Point Spread Betting Outcomes
Win
A “win” occurs when your chosen team or outcome, whether it’s the favorite (with a negative spread) or the underdog (with a positive spread), performs as expected according to the spread.
For instance, if you bet on the favorite with a spread of -3, and they win the game by a margin of more than three points, your bet is considered a win.
Winning bets result in a payout based on the odds, and you usually receive your initial bet amount along with the profit.
Lose
In point spread betting, a “lose” happens when the game’s outcome doesn’t align with your bet.
If you wager on the favorite with a -3 spread, and they either lose the game or win by a margin of less than three points, your bet is considered a loss.
When you lose a point spread bet, you forfeit your initial stake, and there is no payout.
Essentially, your prediction was incorrect, and you don’t profit from the bet.
Push
A “push” is a unique outcome in point-spread betting. It occurs when the actual result of the game aligns precisely with the spread you bet on.
For example, if you bet on the underdog with a +3 spread and they lose the game by exactly three points, your bet results in a push.
In this situation, the money you put on the bet is returned, and there is no profit or loss.
Pushes are a way of ensuring fairness and accuracy in point spread betting, as they reflect the exact outcome predicted by the spread.
How Are Point Spreads Determined?
Point spreads are determined by sportsbooks and oddsmakers who aim to create a balanced betting market for sporting events.
The process of setting point spreads involves careful analysis of several factors.
Sportsbooks assess the relative strengths and weaknesses of the competing teams, taking into account their past performances, statistics, injuries, and other relevant information.
They also consider public perception and biases, as well as the popularity of teams, which can influence the betting action.
Sportsbooks anticipate how the betting public will wager on the game. If a popular team is playing, they might need to adjust the spread to attract bets on the underdog and balance the action.
They also analyze existing betting lines and historical data to fine-tune the point spread.
The ultimate goal is to set a line encouraging equal betting on both sides, ensuring the sportsbook can profit from the vig (commission) regardless of the game’s outcome.
The point spread is not a static number; it’s continuously adjusted in real time leading up to the game as new information becomes available, such as injuries, weather conditions, or betting patterns.
Examples of Point Spread Betting in the NBA
In a matchup where -3 points against the Boston Celtics favor the Los Angeles Lakers, it means the Celtics are the underdogs with a +3 point spread.
For a Lakers bet to win on the spread, they must win the game by more than 3 points.
If you bet on the Celtics with the spread, you need the Celtics to lose by 1 point, 2 points, or even win the game outright for your bet to be successful.
In this example, if the Lakers win by exactly 3 points, or if the Celtics lose by 3 points, it’s considered a “push,” and your bet amount is refunded.
Examples of Point Spread Betting in the NFL
In a matchup with Los Angeles Rams -7, Minnesota Vikings +7
The favorite team, the Los Angeles Rams needs to win by more than 7 points for bettors to win their bet.
On the other hand, if you bet on the underdog, the Minnesota Vikings +7 they can lose by 1-6 points or even win the game, and you still win.
Examples of Point Spread Betting in the MLB
In baseball betting, point spread betting is a bit different and is often called the “run line.”
It’s usually set at -1.5 unless one team is a huge favorite, which might be -2.5.
There are some details to grasp with run-line betting. Home teams often have better odds on the -1.5 than road teams.
That’s because a road team always tries to score as many runs as possible in the top of the ninth inning.
The home team is more likely to win by just one run because if the game is tied going into the ninth, the home team wins as soon as they score one run.
In baseball, some bettors prefer to bet on a favorite -1.5 on the run line or an underdog on the money line instead of taking the +1.5 run line underdog.
How to Bet on a Point Spread?
Basketball
Betting on a point spread in basketball is a popular way to wager on the game’s outcome.
In this system, a negative number (-) represents the favored team, who is expected to win by that many points, while a positive number (+) represents the underdog, who is expected to lose by that number of points.
For instance, in an NBA game between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Golden State Warriors, if the point spread is set at Lakers -6.5 and Warriors +6.5.
Betting on the Lakers means they need to win by more than 6.5 points for your bet to be a winner while betting on the Warriors means they need to either win or lose by less than 6.5 points.
NFL: Football
Betting on NFL football games involves different types of wagering options, including point spread betting.
In this type of bet, sportsbooks set a predicted margin of victory or defeat for each team.
For instance, consider a matchup between the New England Patriots and the Dallas Cowboys.
If the sportsbook sets the point spread as Patriots -3.5 and Cowboys +3.5, a bet on the Patriots means they must win by more than 3.5 points for the bet to succeed.
While a bet on the Cowboys means they need to either win the game outright or lose by less than 3.5 points.
MLB: Baseball
Betting on Major League Baseball (MLB) games, including point spread betting, offers different wagering options.
In point spread betting for baseball, it’s often referred to as the “run line.”
This typically involves a standard spread of -1.5 for the favorite and +1.5 for the underdog.
Let’s consider a real example: a game between the New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox.
If the sportsbook sets the run line as Yankees -1.5 and Red Sox +1.5, a bet on the Yankees means they must win by more than 1.5 runs for the bet to win.
A bet on the Red Sox requires them to either win the game or lose by no more than 1.5 runs.
Soccer
In soccer betting, spreads typically range from 0.5 to 2 goals but vary depending on the competition.
The favored team will have a negative spread (laying goals), while the underdog will have a positive spread (getting goals).
Let’s look at an example of a soccer game between Germany at -1.5 and Japan at +1.5
Germany, the favorite team with a -1.5 spread, must win by two or more goals to cover the spread for you to win your bet.
On the other hand, Japan, the underdog needs to either lose by one goal or less or win the match outright to cover the spread.
Hockey
In hockey betting, particularly in the NHL, you can bet on the “puck line,” similar to a point spread.
This involves handicapping teams by setting a goal differential. For example, in a game between the Boston Bruins and the Chicago Blackhawks, the sportsbook might set the puck line as:
- Boston Bruins -1.5
- Chicago Blackhawks +1.5
If you bet on the Boston Bruins, they need to win by 2 or more goals for your bet to be successful.
If you bet on the Chicago Blackhawks, they need to either win the game or lose by up to 1 goal for your on them bet to win.
Boxing/UFC
In a UFC bantamweight title fight like the one between Henry Cejudo and Aljamain Sterling, point spread betting can include a choice between +5.5 for Cejudo, the underdog, or -5.5 for Sterling, the favorite.
In this particular match, Sterling won via a split decision with scores of 48-47, 48-47, and 47-48.
Sterling won by just one point when the judges’ scores were totaled (143 to 142).
If you had bet on Cejudo with +5.5 points, you would have won because he lost by just one point.
However, if you had bet on Sterling with -5.5 points, you would have lost because the champ didn’t cover the 5.5-point spread.
In essence, when your fighter gets +5.5 points, they can lose by up to 5.5 points on the scorecard, and you still win the bet.
UFC point spreads offer added security when betting on the underdog, allowing for a close decision win rather than a complete loss, which can happen when betting on the underdog’s moneyline.
These MMA wagers can result in lower payouts for favorites compared to moneyline betting because they come with the risk of losing in the event of a unanimous decision that heavily favors the favorite, like a 30/27 or 50/45 decision.
So, when spread betting in the UFC if you choose the favorite every time, you’re limiting the scenarios in which you can win compared to a straightforward moneyline wager.
Tennis
In a match between the top-ranked player, Iga Swiatek, and the 20th-ranked player, Karolina Pliskova, Swiatek might be favored to win by 4.5 games (or sets).
In this 4.5-game (or sets) scenario, Swiatek needs to win at least five more games (sets) than Pliskova for her bettors to win their bets.
This means that more than a score of 6-4, 6-4 would be required for those supporting Swiatek because it’s only a four-game difference.
However, a score like 6-3 6-4 would work. Swiatek could even lose a set and still cover if one of the sets has a noticeable point differential. For example, a 6-4, 6-7 (5), 6-2 victory.
When betting on the game spread, it’s crucial to be aware of the match format.
It’s more challenging to cover a small spread in a best-of-three match, so you should be confident that the favorite can quickly establish a lead or that the underdog can stay competitive to make the spread work your favor.
Cricket
In cricket betting, you can also find point spread-like bets called the “run line.” These bets involve handicapping the expected margin of victory or defeat.
For instance, consider a cricket match between India and England. The sportsbook may set the run line as follows:
- India -1.5 runs
- England +1.5 runs
If you bet on India, they need to win by more than 1.5 runs for your bet to succeed. On the other hand, if you bet on England, they must either win the match or lose by no more than 1.5 runs for your bet to win.
What is Covering the Spread?
To “cover the spread” means winning a point spread bet. When two teams face off, one is considered the underdog, and the other is the favorite.
The underdog covers the spread when they win the game or lose by less than the total number of the spread.
The favorite covers the spread when they win the game and beat the underdog by more than the total number of the spread.
How Do You Know Which Team Will Cover the Spread?
When it comes to determining which team will cover the spread in sports betting one of the most important factors to look at is analyzing the point spread itself.
The point spread is a number set by sportsbooks to create a balanced betting market. It represents the predicted margin of victory for the favored team.
If a team is favored by 7 points, for example, they need to win the game by more than 7 points to cover the spread. The underdog team can cover the spread by either winning the game outright or losing by fewer points than the spread.
Teams’ performance and statistics
Analyze the teams’ performance and statistics. This involves looking at various metrics such as team records, offensive and defensive rankings, player injuries, and recent performances.
These will give you a better understanding of each team’s strengths and weaknesses, which can help you predict how they will perform against the spread.
For example, if a team has a strong offense and is facing a weak defensive team, they may have a higher chance of covering the spread. If a key player is injured or a team has been struggling in recent games, it may affect their ability to cover the spread.
Betting market and public perception
Pay attention to the betting market and public perception. Sportsbooks take into account the betting patterns and public sentiment when setting the point spread.
If a large majority of bettors are favoring one team, sportsbooks may adjust the spread to balance the action. This means that the spread may not solely reflect the true strength of the teams but also the betting market dynamics.
Use the public perception and the betting market, to help you identify potential value opportunities.
If you believe that the public perception is skewed or that the market has overreacted to certain news or events, you may be able to find value in betting against the consensus and identifying teams that have a higher chance of covering the spread.
Why Do Point Spread Change?
Point spread change to ensure that there are an equal number of bets or money on both sides of a game between two teams.
If you observe the numbers in a point spread bet increasing over time, indicating a greater point difference between the teams, it’s a sign that most of the bets are being placed the favorite.
If you see that the numbers are decreasing, most of the bets support the underdog. The flow of money from sports bettors often influences these shifts in point spreads.
Is Plus or Minus Spread Better?
Determining whether the plus or minus spread is better in sports betting depends on your analysis of the teams, their recent performance, your research, and the betting odds.
If you believe the underdog team has a good chance of outperforming expectations, the plus spread may offer higher potential payouts.
On the other hand, if you have confidence in the favorite team’s ability to win convincingly, the minus spread may provide more consistent and lower-risk payouts.
Can You Make Money From Spread?
While it is possible to make money from betting on spreads in sports, it requires knowledge, research, discipline, and a realistic approach. It is not a guaranteed way to generate income, and there is always an element of risk involved.
To make money long-term betting on point spreads, you need to make smart decisions, manage your bankroll wisely, and take advantage of favorable odds, using sports betting tools and promotions, to increase your chances of making money.
What Are Some Great Point Spread Betting Tips and Strategies?
Teaser Betting
Teaser betting is a strategy where, instead of adjusting the point spread for a single game, you manipulate the point spread for two or more games.
While teasers can offer potential advantages, they come with an increased level of risk because they require you to consider the outcomes of multiple games, as opposed to focusing on a single standalone game.
Buying Points
Sports bettors can pay for adjustments to the point spread in their favor when they look at the line for an upcoming game or event.
This is usually called alternated spreads and the idea of it is to bet on more safer spreads between two teams as opposed to the popular point spread that everybody else bets on.
To make the most of this, it’s important to understand that point spread betting revolves around key numbers.
Shifting a spread over or under a key number can significantly impact your success as a sports bettor, but the odds may be less which could cause you to win less money.
But that shouldn’t matter because a win is a win.
Predict and Exploit Line Movement
The point spread for a game is not fixed and can change throughout the day as various factors come into play.
Tracking these changes is more noticeable in sports like football (NFL) and basketball, which have some time gaps between games.
Still, it also occurs in other sports when factors such as injuries, weather conditions, or breaking news impact the lineups and team performance.
Through doing this you’re able to bet on point spreads before sportsbooks changes the odds and point spreads on their end, which is very quick.
Calculate Your Spread Predictions Before Looking at Lines
A valuable tip for point spread betting is to create your spreads before checking the sportsbook’s lines.
Assess the games you’re interested in and determine what you believe the spread should be.
Then, compare your spreads to those offered by the sportsbook. If you find lines are as good as or better than your predictions, you’ve identified value and should consider placing a bet.
If you are look for a more reliable way to do this automatically using data, OddsJam has a tool called Sportsbook Screen you can use with your intuition.
The challenge many bettors face is allowing the sportsbook’s lines to influence their judgment. To avoid this, don’t look at the book’s lines until you’ve made your own assessments.
If a line doesn’t seem favorable initially, you’ll also have a clear idea of how much it needs to move in your favor to become a wise bet.