Positive Expected Value (EV) is one of the most powerful and profitable long-term strategies in sports betting.
It helps bettors compare their predictions for how a game will unfold versus the expectations set by sportsbooks.
What Are Positive EV Bets?
Positive EV betting involves placing wagers on outcomes where there’s a favorable difference, known as Positive Expected Value, between what you expect, based on certain calculations and what the sportsbook expects.
In simple terms, a +EV bet means that the possibility of winning the bet is higher than what the sportsbook has priced it at.
On the flip side, if your bet has a lower chance of success than what’s required to break even, it’s considered a negative expected value (-EV) play.
In essence, +EV bets represent good value, while -EV bets indicate less favorable odds.
How Do Positive EV Bets Work in Sports Betting?
Sports bettors focus on identifying +EV bets on early betting lines.
They don’t rush to wager on games happening that day; instead, they wait for the market to cool down and for the initial betting lines to be released.
This is the prime moment to discover value, often days or even weeks before casual bettors can place their bets, which can lead to shifts in the lines away from the accurate price.
This approach works exceptionally well in sports betting because it enables us to discover value in various markets on a betting platform.
Unlike a simple coin flip, the probability of sports betting is subjective. While data plays a crucial role in creating the initial betting lines, there’s no guarantee that the offered odds truly reflect the actual win probability.
What Are Some Positive EV Bet Examples?
Example 1
If a sportsbook sets a line for a team, let’s say the Seahawks against the Patriots, at +100, it means there’s a 50% implied probability of winning, similar to a coin flip.
Now, if a bettor thinks or has used a tool that calculates that the Seahawks have a higher chance of winning than 50%, they would see this as a positive expected value (+EV) bet.
On the other hand, if the bettor believes the Seahawks have less than a 50% chance to win, they would consider it a negative expected value (-EV) bet.
Example 2
If you wish to bet on the Bears to cover as 3.5-point home underdogs against the Packers, the book provides betting lines with Bears +3.5 (-110) and Packers -3.5 (-110).
Without looking into how the Vig (vigorousness or commission) is managed, understand that sportsbooks typically retain about 2.4% of the wagers on markets priced at -110/-110.
In the case of the Bears +3.5, you would need this bet to be successful more than 52.4% of the time to have an advantage.
With 52.4% as the breakeven point, if you believe that the Bears will cover more than 52.4% of the time, the bet holds a positive expected value (+EV).
In simpler terms, if you think or have data that shows the Bears will cover the spread more often than not, it’s a smart bet.
How Do You Find Positive Expected Value Bets When Sports Betting?
To calculate the expected value (EV) of a bet, you can follow this formula:
- Multiply the probability of winning by the possible payout
- Then subtract the probability of losing multiplied by the amount wagered
Another approach is to use a betting odds converter, where you input the implied probability for the odds and make comparisons.
Both methods help you assess the value of your bets and make informed decisions.
How Do You Calculate Positive EV Bets? What Is the Formula? Calculators to Use?
The formula for expected value is calculated as follows:
(fair win probability) x (profit if win) – (fair loss probability) x (stake). You can also use the Expected Value Calculator for this, which is a lot easier.
Using the above formula, the EV would be $5. This is based on the fair odds without vig from the most knowledgeable sportsbook globally:
50% x $110 – 50% x $100.
In this case, the bet is profitable by $5, and consistently placing positive expected value (+EV) bets like this can lead to significant long-term gains as a sports bettor.
To ensure you’re making wise bets, it’s advisable to use the expected value calculator.
For instance, consider a scenario where you and a friend are flipping a coin with a 50/50 chance of landing on heads or tails.
At +100 odds, the expected value of a $100 coin flip equals $0.
In such a case, there’s no real incentive to flip the coin. However, if you’re getting +110 odds, the EV of a $100 coin flip would be $5, making it a lucrative choice.
So, when you come across these opportunities, it’s wise to seize them.
Positive Expected Value Betting Tools
OddsJam
- Provides a fast value bet finder to over 36+ bookmakers.
- Offers a fast scanner for both in-play and pre-match betting.
- Provides an excellent user interface with filters.
- Offers educational content in the form of written and video materials on value betting and other strategies.
- Provides a 7-day free trial for users to try out the platform.
OddsShopper
- Provides a fast value bet finder to over 60+ bookmakers, primarily from Europe, making it suitable for European bettors.
- Also useful for US players, as it covers over 13+ bookmakers.
- Features an easy-to-use and straightforward user interface.
- Scans many markets and cross-markets.
- Offers written and video guides for beginners.
- Allows users to log their bets and access detailed performance statistics.
- Offers pricing plans that cater to beginners with little experience.
RebelBetting
- Ideal for bettors in the EU and the UK.
- It also serves as a valuable alternative for US and Canadian bettors.
- Covers over 120+ European bookmakers and 13+ US bookmakers.
- Supports a variety of sports (10+).
- Includes a stake calculator.
- Offers a beginner-friendly pricing structure.
BetWasp
- A top choice for finding positive EV bets focusing on US and Canadian bookmakers.
- Covers 41+ US and Canadian bookmakers.
- Provides a free trial with delayed value bets and the opportunity to earn profits up to 2%.
- Features advanced filtering options, allowing users to select specific markets and exclude leagues and events.
Why Does Positive Expected Value Betting Matter?
Expected Value (EV) is one of the most powerful strategies a bettor can use in sports betting.
It empowers you to see the difference in probability between your assessment of how a game will unfold and the perspective of a sportsbook while using betting tools to see who is more correct in their prediction.
In many respects, this approach gives you an advantage over the broader betting community regarding the wagers made.
It’s similar to buying ten cars at $8,000 each to secure significant profits, while everybody else is buying each car for $10,000. When we discover bets with implied probabilities lower than the “true” odds, it can lead to consistent profits.
Relying on random bets or simply supporting your favorite team week after week won’t make you a successful sports bettor.
You’ll end up losing more frequently than winning. To boost your chances of long-term success, it’s crucial to continually seek out bets with a positive expected value (+EV).
This approach provides you with the best opportunity to win more than you lose. Positive EV betting has a bigger advantage over random betting.
Do All Positive EV Bets Win?
No, not all positive expected value (EV) bets will win. Positive EV bets are identified based on the mathematical expectation that, over the long term, they should be profitable.
However, this expectation is based on probabilities and the profit potential, and it doesn’t guarantee short-term success.
It does offer more long-term success.
Positive EV bets are an important concept in sports betting, but they do not guarantee immediate or consistent success.
Bettors need to have a well-thought-out strategy, manage their bankrolls responsibly, and understand that winning and losing bets are part of the game.
Over a large sample of bets, a positive EV should result in a profit, but individual outcomes can be unpredictable.
Here are some important points to consider when it comes to Positive EV betting:
- Variance
- Sample Size
- Probability vs. Outcome
- Edge and Discipline
- Information and Analysis
- Market Efficiency
Is Positive EV Betting Profitable?
Positive EV (expected value) betting can be a profitable strategy if done right.
It means making bets where you have an excellent chance to win more money than you lose in the long run.
But it’s important to know that even good bets don’t always win. You need to make lots of these good bets over time to come out ahead.
It’s not a guaranteed way to get rich, and it takes skill, careful money management, betting tools, and patience to be successful.
How Much Money Can You Make Positive EV Betting?
The amount of money you can make from positive expected value (EV) betting can differ significantly.
It depends on various things, like your skills, the tools you’re using, the number of bets you make, the size of your bets, and the risks of sports betting.
If you consistently follow the strategy and have confidence in its mathematics, you’ll make money in the long term. Statistics have proved this.
Remember, you won’t profit from every bet, but because you’re making bets with a higher chance of winning than the odds suggest, you’ll gradually make money long-term through value betting.
Are There Any Positive EV Betting Strategies?
Track Your Betting Lines
Start by learning how to track betting lines. Keep an eye on how the odds change, whether they get longer or shorter.
Most sportsbooks release game odds around the same time, so it’s crucial to act early and observe these movements.
Focus on games where you notice significant shifts in the odds in the hours leading up to the game.
This is when many casual bettors start to place their bets, and the lines are most active.
It’s about more than going against the heavily favored teams with shortening odds as the game approaches.
You might find value in betting on the underdog as the lines shift in their favor.
I use the OddsJam Value Betting tool to track line movements and +EV bets by the second. It takes out all of the stress of finding these bets for me and it’s what I would recommend to anyone who wants to do this.
Try Multiple Betting Sites
Professional bettors often have accounts with several betting sites. They do this to make sure they’re getting the best possible odds for the game they want to bet on.
One of the common mistakes in sports betting is having just one account and always placing bets with the same betting site.
The thing is, odds can vary by as much as 20% from one site to another.
Choosing the best odds each time can separate a successful bettor from one who loses. So, having multiple accounts is a smart move.
Avoid Betting on Your Favorite Team Every Time
It’s important to steer clear of games that involve your favorite team, because of the emotions you’ve associated with them.
Identifying +EV bets demands a dedicated focus on data and statistics to challenge the betting site’s odds and not emotions and biases.
Betting on your beloved team almost always comes with bias, making it extremely challenging to find accurate odds.
There are countless games available on online betting sites, so there’s always options for something to bet on.
By refraining from betting on games with your team, you eliminate any emotional attachment and can make bets based on reason rather than passion.
Act Early
The best opportunities often arise when betting markets first become available. In others, lines set on the night before a game or days before a game starts.
It’s during this time that experienced bettors are quick to spot and seize bets with a positive expected value (+EV) due to inaccuracies in the lines.
To make the most of this, research before the market opens. Have a clear idea of the probabilities you’d assign to each possible outcome.
As soon as the market is live, target lines that could be +EV and capitalize on them.
These markets stabilize as the game’s start time approaches, with sharp bettors in the mix and casual bettors joining later. So, acting early can be a smart move.
Is Positive EV Betting the Same as Arbitrage Betting?
No, positive EV betting is not the same as arbitrage betting. In an arbitrage bet or surebet, you wager on all possible game outcomes to guarantee a win.
In a positive EV bet, you bet on just one game outcome. This means there’s more risk involved, but the potential reward is higher.
So, while positive EV betting offers greater potential returns, it also carries more risk.
On the other hand, arbitrage provides a guaranteed return on investment without any risk, even though this return is usually small. Think of making $3 from an arbitrage bet.
It’s your choice to decide which approach suits you best!