Run line vs moneyline Betting in Baseball

In baseball betting, two of the most popular styles of betting are run line and moneyline betting. The run line is a type of point spread specific to baseball.

When betting the run line, you are wagering that a particular team will win or lose by a particular number of runs.

The moneyline, on the other hand, is a direct bet on the outcome of the game, without considering the point spread. You are simply choosing which team you think will win. 

Comparing Run Line and Moneyline Bets 

While run line bets involve a point spread between both of the playing teams, moneyline bets are much simpler.

With run line bets, you’re not just betting on who will win, but by how much they will win.

This makes your betting much more complex and risky. Moneyline bets, however, simply involve choosing the winner, making them easier to understand for new bettors. 

How Run Line and Moneyline Odds Are Calculated 

Odds in both run line and moneyline bets are determined by the sportsbooks where you bet at.

They use statistics, past performances, and other data to determine which team is more likely to win a game and by how much.

The more likely a team is to win, the lower the payout will be for a winning bet on that team, and vice versa. 

Understanding Run Line Odds 

In run line betting, the odds are listed in relation to a 1.5 run line.

Bettors can wager on whether the favored team (the -1.5 team) will win by more than 1.5 runs, or whether the underdog team (the +1.5 team) will lose by less than 1.5 runs or even win the game. 

Understanding Moneyline Odds 

Moneyline odds are based solely on the probable winner of the game.

The team considered most likely to win (the favorite) will have negative odds (represented by a minus sign), indicating the amount you would need to bet to win $100.

The less favored team (the underdog) will have positive odds (represented by a plus sign), indicating the amount you would win for a $100 bet. 

Advantages of Run Line Betting 

Potential Higher Return: Due to their complexity, run line bets often offer higher potential returns than moneyline bets. 

Greater Level of Excitement: Betting the run line can add additional excitement to the game as you’re not just watching to see who wins, but by how much. 

Advantages of Moneyline Betting 

Simplicity: Moneyline bets are simple and straightforward, making them a good option for beginners. 

Lower Risk: Because they are based solely on the game’s outcome, moneyline bets can often be less risky than run line bets. 

When to Choose Run Line Over Moneyline

In MLB baseball betting, you may choose to bet the run line over the moneyline when the favored team has a strong chance of winning by a margin of at least 2 runs, and you want to increase your potential payout by taking on the added risk of the run line.

You may also choose to bet the moneyline over the run line when the underdog team has a good chance of winning outright or you think they will lose by less than 1 run, and you want to decrease your risk by avoiding the added point spread of the run line.

When to Choose Moneyline Over Run Line

You may choose to bet the moneyline over the run line in MLB baseball betting when the underdog team has a good chance of winning outright or losing by no more than 1 run, and you want to decrease your risk by avoiding the added point spread of the run line. 

Additionally, if the favored team has a high probability of winning but a low probability of winning by more than 1 run, then the moneyline may be the better bet for you.

You might also want to choose a moneyline bet over a run line bet when you want a bet that is much easier to understand.

What does a -1.5 and a +1.5 run line mean?

In baseball betting, a run line of -1.5 means that the favored team must win by at least 2 runs for the bettor to win, while a run line of +1.5 means that the underdog team can either win the game outright or lose by no more than 1 run for the bettor to win.

A -1.5 Run Line 

A -1.5 run line simply means that the team you bet on needs to win by two or more runs for your bet to pay off. Essentially, you’re giving up 1.5 runs with your team. 

  • If your team wins by two runs or more, you win the bet.
  • If your team wins by only one run, ties, or loses the match, you lose the bet.

A +1.5 Run Line 

A+1.5 run line means you’re receiving a 1.5-run advantage with your team. The team you wager on can either win, tie, or lose the match by a single run, and you’d still win your bet.

  • If your team wins or loses by only one run, you win the bet.
  • If your team loses by two or more runs, you lose the bet.

Is the run line the same as the spread?

In many ways, the baseball run line is similar to the point spread in games like football or basketball. However, while the point spread often varies significantly and can be set at 5, 10, 15, 20 or 30 depending on the teams playing, the run line in baseball is generally always set at 1.5.

This difference reflects the nature of scoring in baseball, which is typically much lower than in football or basketball. 

The rules are the same for run line and spreads it’s the amount of points each team is assigned that is different.

To put it simply, the run line in baseball is similar to the spread in other sports. It creates a more level betting field by accounting for differences in team strength.

However, the key difference is that the run line is typically set at 1.5 rather but the point spread could be set at any number in other sports like basketball and football (NFL) depending on how well two teams are when competing with each other.

Building a Strategic Approach to Baseball Betting

To build a strategic approach to baseball betting, it is important to assess the winning probabilities and evaluate the teams. One way to assess winning probabilities is by building a predictive model for baseball games.

Another approach is to use an MLB betting model, which can help you project your own MLB odds before you bet by using statistics, sports betting analytics, and algorithms.

If you want an easier and more straightforward way to find good bets, you can use OddsJam positive EV betting tools.

When evaluating teams, it is important to approach big moneyline favorites with caution

Additionally, if you are interested in betting a run line, it is recommended to only bet favorites as the value of underdogs is removed entirely if you take them getting +1.5 runs.

Comparing the Two: Run Line vs Moneyline Betting 

 Run Line BettingMoneyline Betting
RiskHigherLower
PayoutCan be higher (especially for underdogs)Usually lower
ComplexityMore complexSimpler
ConventionFavored in high-scoring gamesPreferred by casual bettors