Imagine running in a race without warming up.
You might start off strong, but without proper preparation, the odds of sustaining your pace and crossing the finish line are much lower than someone who’s prepared.
Just like in a race, in sports betting too, if you start betting without a well-thought-out strategy it can quickly dwindle your initial enthusiasm, and soon you might find yourself losing all of your money.
A few years ago I started sports betting without the right strategies and not long after I started I was more than a few thousand dollars in the hole.
Don’t let this be you.
Learn as much as you can and follow a strategy. Here are some betting strategies I wish I had known about when I first started sports betting:
1. Line Shopping
Line shopping is an essential sports betting strategy that involves checking different sportsbooks to find the most favorable odds for your chosen bet.
Not all sportsbooks will have the same odds for the same events.
With line shopping, you’re able to compare the odds between different sportsbooks and have the potential to lock in better value on the amount of money you need to put on your bets while maximizing your potential returns.
OddsJam has a great tool called Sportsbook Screen that can help you find the best odds amongst sportsbooks much faster.
2. Taking Advantage of Sign-up Bonuses
Not many people know this but sportsbooks are always offering deposit-matched bonuses to new customers.
This means that you should never sign up on a sportsbook without utilizing their promos and you should sign up for as many sportsbooks as possible to get free money.
For example, there are some sportsbooks like BETMGM, FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars, and Bet365 that will give you up to a $1,500 match deposit bonus.
This means that you can deposit up to $1,500 and they will match it with a free $1,500 worth of bonus bets, so now you’ll have $3,000 to bet with.
Other sportsbooks will return you the full amount of your bet if you lose your first bet.
This strategy, though it may seem time-consuming, allows you to take advantage of the different offers and can greatly contribute to your profit margin in the long run.
3. Bankroll Management
Effective bankroll management is paramount to long-term betting success and I would shout this off of the rooftop if I could. It’s that important.
This involves setting a specific budget for your betting activities, and sticking to it—win or lose.
It prevents you from chasing losses or getting carried away when you’re on a winning streak. Most experts suggest never wagering more than 1-5% of your bankroll on a single bet.
The 1% to 5% is also what determines the units you should be betting. For example, if you had a $100 bankroll, and you used a 5% bankroll management strategy, your bet size would be $5 (or 5 units) per wager.
This strategy helps you to wisely manage your funds while engaging in sports betting, reducing the risk of losing all your capital at once, and increasing the potential for consistent returns over time.
If you need tools to help determine how much of your bankroll to bet, you can use something like a bankroll calculator, where you can add the total amount of money you have and it will tell you how much is safe (recommended) to bet.
4. Using Mathematical Models
Using mathematical models to inform your betting decisions can give you a significant edge.
These models consider a range of factors, such as team strength, recent form, and historical data to project outcomes and probabilities.
This quantitative approach can help you generate more informed and objective predictions, reducing the influence of bias or emotion.
I am not using any mathematical models to bet these days besides OddsJam.
5. Hedging Your Bets
Hedging is a strategy used to cut potential losses or guarantee a profit by betting on different outcomes in the same event.
It’s often used in situations where you’ve made an initial bet and the circumstances have changed in a way that a loss seems probable.
Here’s an example of when you probably should hedge your bet:
Let’s say you placed a 10-team parlay bet with a $100 stake and nine of your picks have already won.
The last pick is the Golden State Warriors to win their game against the Los Angeles Lakers at odds of -200. If the Warriors win, you stand to make $1500 from your parlay.
However, you are feeling a little nervous about the final pick and want to hedge your bet to ensure you don’t lose your entire stake.
To do this, you could place a separate bet on the Lakers to win at another sportsbook. Let’s say you can get odds of +200 on the Lakers at another sportsbook.
If you bet $375 on the Lakers to win, you would win $750 if they do win the game.
This would mean that if the Warriors win, you would still make $1125 ($1500 from the parlay minus $375 from the hedge bet), and if the Lakers win, you would make $750 from the hedge bet and lose $100 from the original parlay, resulting in a net profit of $650.
By hedging your bet, you have reduced your potential profit from $1500 to $1125, but you have also minimized your potential loss from $100, and will now make some sort of profit regardless of which team wins.
6. Utilizing Prop Bets
Prop bets, also known as proposition bets or side bets, are a type of sports betting wager that allows you to place a bet on a specific outcome or event within a sporting event that may not necessarily be related to the final outcome of the game.
They are based on specific outcomes within an event—like a player’s performance, or the number of corners in a soccer game—and often have less direct competition than traditional bets.
Here is a table listing examples of different types of prop bets in a basketball game:
Prop Bet Type | Description |
Player Scoring | Betting on a specific player to score a certain amount of points |
First Team to Score | A bet on which team will score first in the game |
Team Scoring | Bets on which team will score the most points in a specific quarter |
Player Rebounds | Wagering on a particular player to achieve a certain number of rebounds |
Player Assists | Betting on a specific player to accomplish a certain count of assists |
Total 3-Pointers | A bet on the total number of 3-pointers made by both teams |
Props bets can be a valuable addition to your betting repertoire, provided you have relevant knowledge or insights to predict the outcome of certain things happening in a game.
7. Expected Value Betting
Expected Value Betting is a betting strategy that is aimed at giving you an edge over the bookmakers.
Expected Value in sports betting measures what you can expect to win per bet placed on average over time. The higher the EV, the more profit you will make on average.
It doesn’t mean that all of your bets will win, it means that over a large sample size of bets you will be more profitable long term.
Here’s how the Expected Value Betting works:
- First, calculate the probability of each outcome in a given sporting event. For example, in a basketball game, you’ll need to determine the likelihood of a win, or a loss for each team involved.
- Then, compare those probabilities with the odds provided by the sportsbook you’re betting at. If there’s a significant discrepancy, you’ve found a betting opportunity.
- Finally, use the formula for EV to weigh the financial outcomes of placing your bet.
Expected Value Calculation:
The formula for calculating Expected Value (EV) is quite straightforward:
EV = (Probability of Winning * Amount Won per Bet) – (Probability of Losing * Amount Lost per Bet)
Now, allow me to illustrate with an example that uses American odds.
- Consider a game where the odds are -200. In American odds, this means you have to wager $200 to win $100.
- In our example, let’s say your assessment suggests a 75% chance of winning. That means the probability that you lose is 25%, right?
- Calculating the potential win: Multiply the probability of winning (75% or 0.75) by the amount won per bet ($100). The result is $75.
- Calculating the potential loss: Multiply the probability of losing (25% or 0.25) by the amount lost per bet ($200). The result is $50.
- Subtract the potential loss from the potential win to get the Expected Value: $75 – $50 = $25.
What I just explained above would look something like this:
EV = (0.75 * 100) – (0.25 * 200)
To break down the equation:
- 0.75 represents the probability of winning.
- 100 represents the amount won if the bet is successful.
- 0.25 represents the probability of losing.
- 200 represents the amount lost if the bet is unsuccessful.
Therefore, the expected value (EV) of the bet is calculated by multiplying the probability of winning by the amount won and subtracting the probability of losing multiplied by the amount lost.
In this case, the expected value is 25, which means that over time, betting on this scenario should result in a profit of $25 for every $100 wagered.
To put this into perspective, let’s consider a hypothetical NBA game between the Golden State Warriors and the Los Angeles Lakers.
Expected Value (EV) Betting Example: Golden State Warriors vs Los Angeles Lakers
Warriors | Lakers | |
Implied Probability from Odds | 60% | 40% |
Your Estimated Probability | 65% | 35% |
Expected Value (EV) | +5% | -5% |
In this example, if the bookmakers give the Warriors a 60% chance of winning, but your deep analysis shows that their actual chances are around 65%, this means there’s a positive Expected Value (+5%) for betting on the Warriors.
With this same analysis, the Lakers have a negative Expected Value of -5%.
Recognizing situations where you have a higher estimation of an event happening compared to the sportsbook’s assigned probability is a key step in finding profitable betting opportunities.
I actually don’t want to worry about the numbers behind my positive EV bets, which is why I use tools like OddsJam to help me find them.
This way I just bet on the recommendations that they give me.
8. Arbitrage Betting
Arbitrage betting, also known as arbing, is a betting strategy that involves placing bets on all possible outcomes of an event to guarantee a profit, regardless of the result.
This is usually possible when there is a difference in the odds offered by different betting platforms.
How Does Arbitrage Betting Work?
In sports betting, there are often variations in odds offered by different bookmakers. These differences create an opportunity for arbitrage betting.
The goal is to capitalize on these pricing discrepancies and place bets that guarantee a profit, no matter the outcome.
Arbitrage Betting: An Example
Let’s understand this with a table that depicts a hypothetical scenario in a basketball game between the Lakers and the Warriors.
Bookmaker | Warriors | Lakers |
DraftKings | -200 | +180 |
FanDuel | -180 | +220 |
In this case, you could place a bet on the Warriors with DraftKings and on the Lakers with FanDuel.
Since the odds provided by each bookmaker are different, you are guaranteed to make a profit of about 2% of your total bet no matter who wins.
Arbitrage betting sounds great, doesn’t it?
However, it’s important to note that it requires a lot of time and effort to find these opportunities on your own consistently.
If you want to use sports betting tools that can help you find arbitrage bets, the OddsJam Arbitrage betting tool is great for this.
They also have an arbitrage betting calculator that you will need to determine how much money to place on each of your bets.
9. Middle Betting
Middle betting is a sports betting strategy that involves placing two wagers on both sides of the same market at different lines, with the aim of exploiting changes in the betting lines and securing potential profits.
This strategy is also known as “middling” and it aims to obtain significant profit by betting on two sides of an outcome by taking advantage of the changes in spreads and totals with the added possibility that both bets could win
Here’s an example of middle betting in a game between the Warriors and Lakers:
- Let’s say that the Warriors are playing the Lakers and the point spread is set at Warriors +3.5 / Lakers -3.5.
- You believe that the Warriors will win by more than 3.5 points, so you place a bet on the Warriors at +3.5.
- Later, the point spread shifts and the new line is Warriors +6.5 / Lakers -6.5. You can now place a bet on the Lakers at -6.5, creating a middle bet.
- If the Warriors win by 4, 5, or 6 points, you would win both bets, resulting in a higher payout.
- However, if the Warriors win by 7 or more points or the Lakers win the game, you would lose both bets.
Middle betting can be a risky strategy, but it can also be a profitable one if done correctly.
10. Tracking Your Bets
I think not tracking your bets is a huge mistake. So many bettors overlook tracking their bets, not realizing that this is an important part of improving their betting strategy.
It doesn’t matter how successful your picks have been if you’re not keeping track of your profits and losses.
Without this information, you won’t be able to identify patterns that are more successful for you or make necessary adjustments to your strategy to become more profitable.
You don’t need to use Excel sheets to do this either, apps like Pikkit can automatically track all of your bets for you for free.
Choosing the Right Sport and Sportsbooks
When it comes to sports betting for beginners, having the best strategies is important but I also believe other important factors choosing the right sports to bet on and sportsbooks to bet with.
Picking a sport you’re already familiar with can help you find successful betting strategies more easily.
Let’s briefly discuss some popular sports that you can consider:
NFL
The NFL is an excellent option, especially if you’re a football fan. With its immense popularity and a host of statistics available and betting opportunities, to make your bets.
However, I recommend starting with placing a smaller amount of money on your bets and increasing your bets as you get more comfortable with the strategies.
NBA
The NBA is another popular choice, particularly for those who love basketball.
Just like the NFL, the NBA has a vast pool of statistics, betting opportunities, and information that you can use to your advantage.
Keeping track of player performance, team dynamics, and injury reports can help you make the best decisions. But remember that upsets can still occur, so bet wisely.
MLB
Major League Baseball (MLB) is an option for those who enjoy betting on baseball games.
Since baseball has such a long season, there are many opportunities to bet on games daily.
One way to succeed in MLB betting is by focusing on starting pitchers, their recent performance, and matchups versus their opposing teams.
Many bettors have found baseball to be one of the harder sports to bet on, but there are still opportunities to win if you have ways of analyzing and predicting the outcomes of games better than other bettors can.
Legal Sportsbooks for Beginners
As far as sportsbooks and betting strategies are concerned, some of the best ones to start with as a beginner are:
- DraftKings Sportsbook
- FanDuel Sportsbook
- Caesars Sportsbook
- BetMGM
- Bet365
A betting strategy serves as your game plan in the betting world, allowing you to make the best decisions to help you win rather than relying solely on luck.
It helps you understand what you’re betting on, how to bet, and how much to bet, whether it’s horse racing, football, basketball, or any other sport.
There are many benefits of having a betting strategy:
- It allows you to manage your financial resources effectively
- Increases your odds of winning
- Reduces rash decisions
- Provides a structured path to follow rather than making hasty and unplanned bets
However, this doesn’t mean you should blindly follow a given strategy without understanding it or adapting it to your style of betting and requirements.
Every bettor is unique, with different risk appetites, betting styles, sports of interest, and market knowledge.
Hence, it is important to have a clear understanding of effective sports betting strategies, pick one as your baseline, and tailor it to suit your unique needs.